from a friend

r/w MPs, AJx Axx Q97542 x, we're in third

p - p - 1D - 1H
p - p - 2D

CJ led

T82
xxx
T6
AKxxx

AJx
Axx
Q97542
x

Oh well, that's what we get for opening and rebidding a terrible suit r/w.

Seems normal to win the club and try to pitch a heart now. LHO ruffs the CK and lays down the HK.

For lack of anything to do, we win the HA and play another heart. LHO wins the Q (HJ appearing from RHO) and leads a third heart, RHO shakes a club, we ruff in hand. How do we tackle the trumps?

Seems like there are two options: we lead the DQ or we duck a round. We know LHO is x5x1, LHO x2x6. We can rule out LHO having 2 diamonds, surely he would have done something else with 5521. So LHO has at least 3 diamonds.

Is ducking a diamond ever right? If LHO started with AKx of diamonds, then he wins perforce, and now the defense is helpless. If he started with AJx or Axx, then ducking is no good; the defense can score their high trumps separately via a heart/club crossruff. The defense will make 1 club ruff, 3 high trumps, 1 heart, and 2 spades (barring a spade miracle.)

When is leading the DQ right? When diamonds are AKxx - J or Jx - AKx. But we've already ruled out Jx - AKx. Now we hold our diamond losers to one fewer for down 1 instead of 2.

Does LHO have HKQT9 DAK CJ? RHO failed to act over 1H, so RHO can't have much. He has six clubs to the Q and the HJ. With a high diamond honor, it looks like he may have bid over 1H. So he probably doesn't have that, but he probably does have a spade card, or LHO has a lot of stuff over there.

So it feels like RHO doesn't have a high diamond honor. What should we play for?